Investment views based on the cycles and economic fundamentals. Not all views expressed in this blog are in line with the views of F&C.
Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave
Tuesday, 28 February 2012
Target2 net amounts by central bank in Eurozone: ominous rises; threat for more LTRO
Target2 explosion is threat for more 3 year LTRO by ECB
Target2 is the system in the Eurozone where the central banks net their liabilities resulting from the banking system needs.
The strong countries have big surpluses while the central banks of the PIIGS have huge deficits.
The last half year these positions were exploding, the surplus countries get enormous positive Target2 amounts that the weak central banks in exploding amounts owe to the core.
This is a reason why the Dutch central bank (DNB) is worried about 3 year deposits and some people of DNB (or formerly DNB) say the ECB is taking too much risk.
The strong core: Germany, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Finland. Especially the amount of Luxembourg is extreme versus its GDP.
The weak countries: all the other, including Austria and France.
The deficits are exploding for Italy, Spain, Belgium and improving for Ireland and stabilising in Portugal.
(source: http://www.querschuesse.de/target2-salden/)
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