Sunday, 19 February 2012
Initial claims in US in line with 4% growth in Q1
The initial claims for unemployment are declining prosperously in the US in the past weeks. When that should be your only guide for growth, you should believe that growth in Q1 will be something like 4%.
The initial claims De initial claims are still quite a lot higher than in 2004-2006, so it can go lower. But the initial claims are starting to point at a growth of the employment of more than 200,000 and that is surprisingly high (=nearly impossible) given the economic growth in the past year.
The decline of the initial claims is an important leading indicator (however only leading for 1-2 months) and maybe the most important indicator for the belief that macro fundamentals are improving in the US.