Strategas explained it again (see chart): confidence plummets when the gasoline prices rise. When the oil prices rise further the gasoline price will go up and the confidence down, the macro economists will lower obediently to the oil sheiks the economic growth .
By the way, oil prices will have to rise materially will it be of more importance for the approval rating of the president than job growth.
It is clear that the oil prices will rise when Iran will be attacked or when Iran will lay mines in the street of Hormuz. 1 million barrels oil per day could mean oil prices +26% was calculated (a little bit too much I think, but with supply disruptions the rise of the oil prices will be material).
Obama really knows this and is exercising with all of the US government tremendous pressure on Israel not to attack Iran in an election year. According ot Stratfor Israel needs some help from the US to bomb and clear the Iran nuclear facilities enough back to the stone age. This help they will not get this year. Only the game theory of the trembling hands (people have wrong information and do not rational things and panic) could lead to attacks (and unfortunately this is not unlikely, see how against all odds Saddam Hussein continued to believe Iraq would not be attacked by the US).
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