Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Tuesday, 14 February 2012

Schäuble loses confidence in Greek government (especially after the election)

Not only in the Netherlands (an opinion poll in newspaper De Telegraaf showed 92% did not support new bail outs for Greece) but also in Germany the support for helping Greece is dwindling.
Athens burned Sunday because of approving of new austerity by the current government under pressure of core Europe.
But the New Democrats, after the elections probably the biggest party (31% in the polls), told almost immediately after the vote that the results of Sunday had to be renegotiated by the new government after April.
Those elections will not produce a majority for the friends of European forced austerity. The labour party PASOK that has now a majority in parliament will get about 8% of the votes if they are lucky. Some parties already have indicated they don’t want to rule and they will become big because they oppose more austerity measures (and that is what a lot of people want).

The German minister of finance Schäuble no longer wants to kick the can down the road because Greece will turn in an uncontrollable political ruin after the elections. Now asking from the current government to support current measures after the elections is naive because the will have no votes or are persuaded by the force of the dark side to forgo more austerity.
So it will become very difficult for Greece to remain in the Euro zone because they can no longer force more austerity. The patience of Germany and the Greek people is exhausted.
Schäuble thinks the banks are now much better prepared than two years ago and can take the losses of a Greek default. Europe has bought enough time and this was (maybe for the banks) a success, including the help of the ECB the banking system outside Greece can survive well. Day X (of Greek default) has lost a lot of horror Roessler told at German TV.

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