Obama’s re-election chances are not rising enough with the better S&P and macro

The chart of Bespoke shows that Obama should have better prospects in the polls base don the rise of the S&P and the macro numbers.
A lot of people think that when the employment growth numbers stay enough above 150.000 (and so the unemployment rate will fall), Obama will have no problems to gain re-election.
The republicans continue to throw mud toe ach other and Romney showed a lack of compassion when he told that it didn’t matter for him what happened to the 5% poorest Americans. The damage in the polls is not big because most republicans agree with Romney: social security is good enough in their eyes (the cartoonist thinks more like the Europeans about how good the social security is in the US).

Obama doesn’t need to despair, Romney changes view too opportunistically and in this phase of the battle the republicans get a lot of press (for Obama is not battled in the democratic pre-elections). All attention is good, even when it is about throwing mud. The normal scenario is that until the republicans have crowned their candidate in their convention they have to take advantage of all extra publicity to take a big lead in the polls. That has happened more often and that can be a reason why Obama profits so little of the better macro news (and the consumer confidence is much worse than the S&P indicates).

All in all the contest between Obama and Romney will be close. The mini cycle of the economy should go down after c. April and that shoud help Romney at a victory, but maybe I’m wrong and Obama will be lucky with further recovery of the economy with 200.000 employment growth every month.