Investment views based on the cycles and economic fundamentals. Not all views expressed in this blog are in line with the views of F&C.
Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave
Tuesday, 21 February 2012
Copper price too low versus ISM
The copper price ordinarily follows the ISM, the most important barometer for manufacturing in the US, with servile obedience. This time the copper price almost doesn’t move on the resurrection of the ISM. That is odd. Maybe it is like 2003-2004 when at long last the copper rpice followed the ISM higher.
It also could very well be that the ISM is not following the ISM because growth in China is too much slowing, especially in construction.
Another cause could be the big decline of the copper inventories in warehouses. China is already importing not enough copper for some time.
Still it is strange that the copper price is not following the world macro fundamentals in the west.
Dr. Copper normally warns for the health of the world economy. So it is dangerous to neglect the trailing copper prices: the recovery in the US is making progress, but without a further rise of the copper price you should not become very optimistic about the world macro fundamentals (but at the moment there is not yet reason to become more pessimistic).
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