Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Wednesday, 1 February 2012

Shiller: real house prices back to 2002, not yet bottom in US (?)

The monthly numbers of the Case Shiller index for the house prices in the biggest 10 and 20 cities in the US declined -0.7% in November and yoy -3.7%, a tad more than in October.
That is disappointing and the pessimists think the bottom will not be reached in 2012. In nominal terms the house prices are bottoming since 2009 and we are already almost three years at the bottom. This can easily last for another two years but I think we will see a (modest) rise of house prices already this year. Vacancies are down, inventories are declining at a 17% pace yoy, affordability is splendid and household formation is growing with employment gains and there will arrive help from Obama.

(chart from Calculated Risk)

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