Monday, 22 November 2010
Super cycle: China more important than US and China together in 2030
Standard Chartered extrapolated the growth of the countries in the world to 2030 according to their own expectations. They are 2,5% growth for the US and Europe and 6,9% for China and 9,3% for India.
From 2010 to 2030 the world GDP in $ will rise tremendously, it will be five times bigger than today.
Standard Chartered is afraid they calclulate not enough growth for India, 12% is possible when the red tape goes down structurally and when they continue to invest lots and lots in infrastructure as they suddenly are doing now (they have seen the success of China by doing this).
The growth for the US is a bit too low I think, 3% is definitely possible until 2030 and maybe 3,5% also. For Europe 2% should be already quite an achievement given the much worse demography of Europe than that of the US.
The estimates for 2030 are also very difficult because of the expected rise of the currencies of China and India in real terms. That can be more than now is calculated or less. The results for 2030 are higher than tou normallty see because a rise of value of the currencies is supposed, what most forecasters don't take into account.
Based on the assumptions of Standard Chartered you see that the size of the Chinese economy in 2030 is almost as big as that of the US and Europe together (and that with that favourable 2,5% growth expectation for Europe and that cautious forecast of 6,9% for China). India could be in 2030 almost as big as the US (that is more optimistic than I have ever seen before).
Japan will become pretty unimportant in 2030 (still they will get 1% growth despite the decline of the population).
(picture of Harry Camp at story about China from Ferguson in WSJ)