Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Sunday 14 November 2010

Barron's: people too afraid for rising bond yields and not afraid for equities


the most emailed article of the investment journal Barrons was: In Love With Stocks Again. Steve Sears demonstrates that equity investors are falling asleep. In a vry short period the risk premium of equities has evaporated if you take for that the difference between the pricing of puts and calls (puts no longer way too expensive compared to calls, see chart part skew). Also the implied volatility (CBOE volatility VIX) has gone down to rather low levels. Also the buying of the number of puts versus calls has gone down(differently than in the Netherlands, but that is closer to the Euro periphery than for Americans). Sears interpretes that positively that equities love equities again, but normally you must take this kind of articles as a contrarian indicator.

In e.g. the article Double Hex they are very pessimistic (fortunately) about the coming monetary tightening in China, the vanishing of profit margins on steel and the slowing down of growth in Germany and the rest of Europe on the high euro.

The most curious article was: "Why higher bond yields aren't bad for bonds".
I dont know what can be worse for bonds on the short run than than higher bond yields. The writer of the article knows that higher yields mean lower prices, but he remains in love with bonds. Preferrably long dated municipality bonds. But also credits, especially high yield (with exception of the worst C ratings, something I agree with him) is his first choice.
The writer is right that when the rise of bond yields goes only very slowly or about as fast as implied by the yield curve, that a rise of bond yields is favourable for long term bond investors (and certainly for pension funds that calculate its liabilities at current (swap or bond) yields).
But he supposes yields will go up because economic growth will recover(he prefers high yield). If that is the case, then the Fed will stop with QE2 and people will worry about exit2. Chartists already see higher lows in bond yields and around April we had much higher bond yields than now. Bond yields can easily surpass the April highs when the market doesn't see QE3 arriving. In that case bond yields will rise much faster than the yield curve priced in and bond investors will regret they haven't invested in equities (or for the prudent ones in convertibles). So, buying bonds because you see rising bond yields is utterly nonsense.

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