Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Tuesday, 16 November 2010

Good News November 16





China’s LEI (Leading Economic Indicator) index rose for the 5th month (+0.6% to 150.8), suggesting that "the economy is likely to expand steadily through early 2011 (Bloomberg)." Inflation worries still growing, food price control could arrive.
German ZEW rose more than expected
More belief that China is buying hard assets instead of US Treasuries. Japan also.
Insurance of Ireland a bit less expensive (chart Bianco) (Well, Austria dealt a new blow to Greece, so the crisis is not yet finished)
Attack of GOP on Fed continues, Fed should no longer emphasize on employment, only on inflation. Not good news but could lead to exaggerate pessimism about QE2 or fear of republicans the Fed will manage to get unemployment rate below 7% at the end of 2012 (=Obama re-elected) as Yellen of Fed more or less promised today.
India - Leaders in New Delhi see that the best way to staunch inflows of hot money may be to allow the rupee to appreciate – FT
The strange combination that equities, bonds and commodities mobve in the same direction continues..
Business travel rebounded in Sept – IATA – The IATA said business travel rose 12.1% YoY but remained below pre-recession levels
Companies rush to sell debt; blue chip companies growing nervous about sustainability of low Treasury yields....the FT says “the recent rise in yields has poked some of the fence sitters into activity”. This has been the busiest Nov on record for debt sales according to the FT. http://bit.ly/cYKCGl (also chart Bianco)

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