Investment views based on the cycles and economic fundamentals. Not all views expressed in this blog are in line with the views of F&C.
Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave
Wednesday, 10 November 2010
QE2 and the path of Arthus
The chart shows the economic growth of the US according to several models/ theories.
In the long run the US economy followed the path of the law of Okun: the growth was about equal to 3% plus two times the decline of the unemployment rate, so structurally 3%.
Since the credit crisis is the US economy more and more deviating from the 3% path of Okun.
The economy is growing according to the best path of Arthus, the guru of Natixis. He is more or less a supporther of the New Normal theory. The loss of growth according to the Okun path is permanent he says and you will see no convergence to the Okun path in the coming few years. That is because of deleveraging the consumption cannot faster than income (something that in the past happened after every recession and that caused higher growth than 3%.
Even with the best path of Arthus the Fed cann't live, that forbids their mandate (and triggers impeachmeant of bernanke over some time). If the US economy continues to follow the path of Arthus the unemployment rate will not decline (but stabilise)enough reason for Obama to fire Bernanke, but than he has to be quick because he cannot be reelected on the path of Arthus.
So the Fed had to do something else thean normal, somthing that makes it possible to get the moderate V Bernanke path. That is why the Fed has to print tons of money even while there is not much danger for a recession in the coming quarters. Those hundreds of billions must restore confidence by blowing up the stock market, easing financial conditions so business get more credit and mortgages are easier to get also.
Obama will start to mr. nice guy for the republicans (as also Clinton did) and extend the Bsh tax cuts for at least one, probably two years, making the moderateV Bernanke path now the most probable path
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