Investment views based on the cycles and economic fundamentals. Not all views expressed in this blog are in line with the views of F&C.
Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave
Monday, 8 November 2010
good news November 8
*The Bank of Japan has called the first amount of risky assets like equities they will buy (Y 150B) on the newly created Vegas accounts.
* The Chinese equity market rose further on polls that the economic growth is improving again.
*US executives are increasing their optimism about profits in the future at a record amount.
* WSJ: individuals have started to buy equities again
* German exports rebounded strongly in September. Nominal exports rose 3.1%m/m and are up 18.5%q/q saar in 3Q10.
* Chinese President Hu Jintao said on Sunday his country will back Portugal's efforts to deal with the world financial crisis, but stopped short of vowing to buy Portuguese debt; that said, sources have revealed that Chinese investors did participate in Portugal debt auctions recently – Reuters
*JPM started to become more optimistic in its latest Global Data Watch: The tide is turning.
* GE’s CEO Jeff Immelt said he sees the company’s business in India growing at 30% a year. Reuters
* Air France said passenger traffic rose 3.1% in Oct and cargo traffic saw a 6.4% rise.
* Absolute Strategy Researcg: a notable bounce in positive revenues stories is suggesting that the corporate story is not simply about cost cutting. (see their chart)
*Positive story of Morgan Stanley (Sense and sensibility): 10Plausible default does not mean likely default. 2)Deus ex machina. The key here is: i) that there exist creditors willing to fund weaker governments on an ongoing basis (the IMF, the EFSF and its eventual successor); but also, crucially, ii) that these creditors are willing to do so at a ‘sensible’ interest rate. We think that the incentives to do so are strong enough to overcome obstacles
* Neelie Kroes will disentangle the European Union's jumbled online economy. And bring uniformity in the European digital copyrights according to WSJ
* NY FED: Total household delinquency rates declined for the second consecutive quarter in this third quarter of 2010. As of Sept. 30, 11.1% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, compared to 11.4% on June 30.
*Senior Loan Officers Survey: banks eased standards for lending (but they have still very tight standards, but it is a huge improvement that the banks are not only tightening less (that is already good for growth) but are already easing standards.
Also demand for loans is no longer falling.
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