Investment views based on the cycles and economic fundamentals. Not all views expressed in this blog are in line with the views of F&C.
Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave
Wednesday, 17 November 2010
Good News November 17
o Barron’s tells about the rebirth of the bond vigilantes. They don't take it any longer, that low real rates and low inflation expectations. Because of that QE2 will be less inflationary.
o The IPO of GM. It is going to be a hype. They will sell 30% more than initially thought (478 million shares)and also against a higher price.
o The politicians are making progress to support Ireland, more precise its banks, with € 100 billion (of Eurozone, UK and IMF (IMF is postulated by several countries, also by the Dutch minister Jan Kees de Jager)). They have sent a Plunge Protection team of EC, ECB and IMF to the Celtic Tiger to see how much the Irish banks need. The Irish government tries to guarantee the senior debts of the banks for 100%, in a try to limit the damage of the Merkel crash (she wants a haircut for the bondholders). Until now Ireland has not yet succumbed but they will, it is difficult to resist agreed opinions told by our Jan Kees. If ireland accepts the support for its banks, the Portuguese banks probably soon will follow to diminish the addiction for ECB money. Photo of Bianco of Irish Star.
o Kerninflatie VS 0, lager dan gedacht. Dit is (samen met de slechte cijfers over de huizenmarkt) steun in de rug voor de Fed om straffeloos voor $600 miljard Sinterklaas te spelen.
o Warren Buffett vindt QE2 gevaarlijk, maar voorspelt dat de VS er over 4-5 jaar veel en veel beter voorstaat
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