Tuesday, 16 November 2010
The Super Cycle (1) and the growth of the Middle Class
Standard Chartered had a voluminous story about the super cycle on the long run (152 pages). Included are several interesting chapters and charts.
Standard Charted has extrapolated the current existent trends cautiously for 20 years. By doing so you see tremendous changes in the world: the West will be totally passed by China and (in this period not totally0 India. You still become surprised by the numbers after 20 year, even while you know very well of the trends that china and India and many other Emerging Markets do what their name suggests.
The division of Standard Chartered agrees well with ours concerning what the good and bad times are if you make that division according to growth above or below average. That is not in agreement with whatare good times for equities, but is is in agreementwith what are good times for the man on the street in the world (=not only the US and the UK).
The economic growth is high in our propserity and recession scenario (recession for profit margins not for labour income).
The by Standard Chartered forecast growth after 2000 can become even higher, according to us the avarage growth will be higher than in the period 1949-1965 (because of the fast growing weight of emerging markets with their hig growth).
The most important driver behind the changes is the rise of the middle class in the world (they change the world dynamism, not the very poor and the very rich). Standard Chartered divides the world North america, Latin America, Africa below Sahel, Middle east + North Africa, Europe, Pacific (India , China, Japan and rest world). You see the tremenedous growth in asia pacific and the relative stability in the rest of the world. The percentage growth in Africa is big, but the absolute growth is low because of the low starting point.
Maybe Standard Chartered is a bit too pessimistic, but in general the growth of the middle class is the best indicator for the growth dynamics in the world.