Investment views based on the cycles and economic fundamentals.
Not all views expressed in this blog are in line with the views of F&C.
Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave
Thursday, 26 July 2012
Slowing of growth in UK, Germany and US
A very bad number for UK growth in Q2, -0.8% because of the diamond jubilee of Elizabeth and the lower amount of days worked. The consensus hoped for -0.2%.
In Germany the IFO declined and then it is clear that GDP growth is slowing too.
The eurocoin indicator and many other indicators already signalled that economic growth in Europe was worse in Q2 than in Q1. Base effects for Q3 are bad too.
In the US it was not so much different this time. The Phillyfed coincident indicator by state showed there are now many more states with negative growth than in Q1. This means about 1% economic growth. We hope that things will go better from August on, but it looks like Q3 will be disappointing too, 2% or lower (we are near the point people are saying that 2% growth is not all something disappointing, but really quite nice)