Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Monday 30 July 2012

Some charts for optimists

1. Economic Surprise Induces are troughing
Source: Credit Suisse
2. Earnings pessimism is extreme
(Socgen chart)
(Credit Suisse): after trough normally equities rise on average 4% in the following month when earnings pessimism is as extreme as now..


Earnings pessimism often troughs when it is as negative as now.

3. positioning of hedge funds is too negative
Advisors being more optimistic than hedge funds seems to be a positive
Reversals when the beta is -0.3

4. M1 growth is set to accelerate in Eurozone
Chart from Applied Global Macro research (formerly Benderly). Normally this is favourable for equities.

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