Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Thursday, 5 July 2012

update juglar cycle (US)

In the chart above you see the annualised contribution of the fixed investments to growth of the GDP. From time to time this is negative and the Juglar has gone down then. The blue vertical lines give the troughs of the Juglar cycles (there was a double dip 1980-1982). Since 1980 we have seen four troughs. A Juglar ought to last 7 to 12 years. The last trough was in 2009, so the next one should not arrive before 2016, more normal somewhere around 2018-2020.

The tops are charted with the highs in the capacity utilisation (green vertical lines). The highs became lower and lower since 1980. In 2007 the high was very low. We have to hope that the high of the current cycle will not be lower again, but a more normal 84-86.

In Europe we are marching to a new low in the Juglar, way too early. Maybe I’m wrong and will the investments continue to grow (profits are good enough). The euro crisis with its impossible financing of investments sends the Juglar down premature in many European countries.


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