Wednesday, 4 April 2012
Kondratieff wave of commodity prices according to Stiefel
The chart of Stiefel illustrates their view on the Kondratieff wave, viewed through the spectacles of commodity prices (that is mainly the specialty of Rostow and Kondratieff).
The dating of good and bad parts of the Kondratieff wave is controversial because since Keynes the good times are mostly not the times that commodity prices rose. Not commodities but governments and higher wages were the main culprits for higher inflation since Keynes.
Also the dotted line for the future is of course debatable. Stiefel sees immediately a decline of commodity prices with a big recovery afterwards. I see this big fall only happen in a hard landing of China. I expect that to happen after 2015, possibly 2018-2020.