Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Friday, 13 April 2012

Housing prices in Europe: too high, too indebted and overbuilding in several countries (André)




The faster the house prices, the more houses are built. Consequence: a combination of too high prices and way too much new supply. Disaster strikes as we saw in Ireland in Spain. The Netherlands is an outlier in the first chart: despite high house prices almost no new houses are built.

The other chart shows where the mortgage debt is the highest compared to the income. That is again in the countries where the house prices have risen the most. There some core European countries are at the top, like Denmark and the Netherlands.
Many housing markets at risk because of too high house prices (for example price to income is 40% too high in The Netherlands and price to rent 30%, see (here not shown) charts in the presentation of Cristophe André), too much debt and overbuilding.
In some countries the opposite is true, like in Germany: house prices are 20-30% too low, mortgage debt is low, no overbuilding at all.

source: http://www.frbatlanta.org/documents/news/conferences/12fmc/12fmc_andre_pres.pdf

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