Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Friday, 27 April 2012

Initial claims point to lower growth in the US

The initial claims for unemployment in the US are rising. The beautiful decline is over that pointed to more employment growth and better income growth. After the sudden deterioration a further rise is not that likely. The current rise probably is mainly caused by a payback of the very warm winter weather and this should stop in May.

There are almost no indicators and especially not weekly indicators that move so well up and down with the US economic growth in a quarter (see chart of the comparison).

This rise of the initial claims is a favourite argument for the people who see the US economy sliding to very weak, QE3 prone, growth. They see it as an important clue for a further decline of the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index. However when the rise of initial claims in mainly caused by the weather one should not stay awake because of that.

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