Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Tuesday, 5 June 2012

Obama's chances on re-election are tumbling

The chart above gives the probability according to Intrade of the re-election of Obama (with its blip after the killing of Osama bin Laden).
If it were the chart of an equity you should sell it after the breakdown after the bad employment numbers last week.

The chart above gives the probability of a win of Romney according to betters on Intrade. If it were an equity you should buy it. Especially after the last bad employment growth numbers.
The unemployment rate is strongly correlated with the chances of Obama. According to Strategas the unemployment rate has to decline to below 7.6% for a win of Obama. This is not a great probability.
The approval rate of Obama is too low for an easy re-election.

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