Wednesday, 20 June 2012
Decoupling of growth US and Europe not at all clear
Most other countries in Europe have a clearly lower correlation with the US, but still quite high. Together the growth of total Europes correlates only a bit stronger than the growth of France with the US. The correlation between growth between European countries is often clearly lower than the correlation with US growth: it should have been better to take the dollar as common currency (when correlation is important as often has been stated).
N.B. Rosenberg thinks the growth of the US will fall to European levels, while I think the old growth differences with the US will come back pretty soon with recovering growth in Europe (from recession levels now).