Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Wednesday, 20 June 2012

Decoupling of growth US and Europe not at all clear

The correlation between the growth of France with that of the US is high (about 0.8). The decoupling of the growth of France from the US is not at all clear. The growth differences have been higher. The past shows that those growth differences didn’t last long. By the way, economic growth in the US is structurally higher than in France because of the (1%). That growth difference was lower than 1% since 2000 but seems to be rising a bit (say 0.5%) again.

Most other countries in Europe have a clearly lower correlation with the US, but still quite high. Together the growth of total Europes correlates only a bit stronger than the growth of France with the US. The correlation between growth between European countries is often clearly lower than the correlation with US growth: it should have been better to take the dollar as common currency (when correlation is important as often has been stated).

The chart of Rosenberg shows that the growth in Europe correlated strongly with the US and the deviation is not that big now. His question is: Is there a decoupling of growth between the US and Europe?

N.B. Rosenberg thinks the growth of the US will fall to European levels, while I think the old growth differences with the US will come back pretty soon with recovering growth in Europe (from recession levels now).

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