Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Monday, 11 June 2012

The mini cycle and PE's, bond yields

Above a chart of the Citigroup Surprise Indices (CESI) for the US, Eurozone and China. They are based on a weighted three month base according to Citigroup recipe.

The most surprising is that China disappoints the most (but today it will recover somewhat).

Important is that from time to time the news is a bit too disappointing or too good. At the moment the US is going out of the normal range to overpessimism and then you can predict with a good chance of success that the tide will turn.

The US CESI follows a mini cycle that I hope is now close to its trough (and that is possible when politicians in Europe stop the melt down and/or central banks throw a zillion to the markets (then confidence will improve, new orders can rise again), when the oil price remains low (this supports consumption now very well, this is underappreciated good news).

The PE’s correlate very well according to the mini cycle with economic surprises (in the chart you see the PE divided by its two year moving average). This means that when the Citigroup Surprise index starts to rise again, you can have high hopes that PE’s will rise and equity markets go up.
Also the interest rates follow the mini cycle of macro surprises. The relation is not that well in the last months because suddenly a strong belief was growing we live in a kind of Japan scenario for the next decade or worse thanks to euro politics.

This kind of doom scenarios will get less followers when the US mini cycle turns up again, but for a big move of long dated interest rates more is necessary: a convincing solution for the euro crisis or a convincing outlook for higher inflation on the long run. Both things will arrive, but you need still more patience.

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