India groeit 4% extra door demografie

GS maakte een uitgebreide studie over de demografie van India. De belangrijkste uitkomst is dat de komende 10 jaar de groei met 4% aangezwenegld wordt door de gunstige demografie. Het percentage mensen dat afhankelijk is neemt flinkaf, de beroepsbevolking groeit met 110 miljoen, de urbanisatie zet fors door (290 miljoen mensen trekken nar de steden), vrouwen gaan meer werken en de genoten opleiding verbetert sterk.
Die 4% kan nog stijgen als men de juiste politiek volgt (verminderen bureaucratie, beter onderwijs, veel investeringen in infrasructuur)
Bovendien gaat de productiviteit extra stijging door het snel stijgende ssntsl 30-50 jarigen.

ndia’s Rising Labour Force
 India will likely provide the largest increase to the global labour force over the next decade—we estimate an additional 110 million by 2020.
 Key demographic trends driving the labour force are urbanization, more women in the work-force, and a large increase in the 30-49 age group.
 Demographics alone may contribute about 4 percentage points of annual GDP growth over the next decade.
 Demographics will affect consumer spending patterns. Spending on services such as health and education may increase five-fold by 2020.
 The age structure of the population is favourable for flows into equities and bonds, and less favourable for bank deposits.
 India’s manufacturing sector has the potential to create the necessary jobs due to recent policy changes, low unit labour costs, infrastructure build-out, prospective lowering of effective tax rates, and rising productivity trends.
 For potential to meet reality, however, India would need to reform its archaic labour laws and invest heavily in education and skills training.


Three demographic forces will shape India’s labour force—two are well-known—more women in the work force and urbanisation. The third is less well-known—an increase in the population of Indians who are in their 30s and 40s (‘thorties’). Nearly half of the increase in the labour force over the next two decades will likely come from this age group, which tend to be peak years for earnings, savings, and productivity.

Dus meer vrouwen, urbanisatie en meer 30-40 jarigen.
Can India absorb such a large increase in its labour force? In particular, the biggest challenge is to employ the surplus labour coming out of agriculture into industry and services. According to our projections industry would need to create some 40 million jobs over the next 10 years to absorb this labour—which is about 40% of the total jobs created.
 Our analysis suggests that industry can potentially generate the required number of jobs due to low unit labour costs, infrastructure build-out, the reduction of effective tax rates on industry due to the forthcoming implementation of the Goods & Services Tax (GST), and recent trends indicating increased investment and productivity in the sector.
 For potential to meet reality, however, would require a massive overhaul of India’s archaic labour laws and heavy investment in education and skills training. Labour restrictions on hiring and firing increases costs, reduces incentives to invest in skill development, discourages economies of scale, and inhibits competitiveness. Unless India reforms its labour laws, the industrial growth that is needed to absorb labour will remain in the realm of potential.

Three demographic trends are driving the increase in labour force. First, nearly half of the increase in the labour force over the next two decades will likely come from the age group of people in their 30s and 40s, which tend to be peak years for earnings, savings, and productivity. Second, a large number of
women can potentially enter the workforce. Third, we estimate that an additional 290 million Indians may urbanise by 2030, and a staggering 640 million by 2050.
Our projections for India’s labour force suggest that it may rise by about 110 million over the next ten years alone. To put this in perspective, the International Labour Organization (ILO) projects China’s labour force to increase by 15 million, and Japan’s to decline by 3 million over the same period. Our projections take into account increases to the labour force participation rate, due to a favourable age structure. Thus, our labour force projections are higher than those of the ILO.

D.w.z. het zwaartepunt van de groei in de wereld gaat verschuiven van China naar India.