Sunday, 11 March 2012
Real interest rates US too low
The chart of Guggenheim shows the real interest rates are too low compared to the –by the way still recessionary low- consumer confidence.
As long as the belief in 0% interest rates until 2015 is almost uncontested and there are enough zombie buyers (that is questionable after June when the Fed has ended Operation Twist) the long dated bond yields can remain way lower than the fundamentals indicate.
The interest rate risk is asymmetrical now: the interest rates cannot go down much but they can rise a lot when the FED starts worrying about inflation (as the bad development of unit labour costs and higher rents make almost unavoidable) or money growth will become too high (M2 growth already 10% now).