Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Sunday, 6 May 2012

China: credit growth accelerates and decline of house prices is stabilising

The credit growth decelerated in a year time from 9.7% to 8.1% and that is reason enough to forecast lower growth in China at the moment.
The numbers of April show fortunately a big revival and that is a powerful indication China is in a soft landing that will be over in H2.
The prices of houses in China are declining, but the decline is stable and low. The trend is not yet bent up again. 8700 yuan or about € 900 per m2 is a lot for a developing country (too many times the average wage), but for a house in a big city with far above average wages it doesn’t seem too ridiculous. As long as the downtrend continues the recovery from the soft landing will not be that great. Residential investment, construction has grown way too fast for a number of years in China and even after the soft landing this growth ought not to come back to the old 30% growth.  

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