Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Tuesday, 26 October 2010

Good news October 26

o Saudi Arabia made it clear that they have much more reserves than anyone thinks. The period of easy oil is not over for Saudi Arabia (Business Insider: # ixzz13RiWQ3Q8). Especially all the fields under the sea, where they have not done any effort. The Ghawar field alone is already worth 88 billion reserves, these reserves are higher than oil reserves of almost every country in the world. For the first time a plausible story that their reserves are much larger than they officially report (for decades they cry that they have 260 billion barrels of reserves, whatever their production was). The United Emirates are in an equally fortunate position (except Dubai) . The natural gas story is even better, but that's more in other countries (Iran, Qatar, etc.) in the Gulf than Saudi Arabia.
o Business Insider: tax cuts in U.S. are almost certain, now it is clear that Obama can not re-elected without the tax cuts, so Hail Mary cuts will arrive. Additional other expenses are no longer possible when the Republicans take over Congress and perhaps the Senate. That is a new positive theme that, according to Strategas not yet in prices (only 30% believes this).

o With a low load Arcelor Mittal lot more profit in the third quarter, while much less expected earnings (EBITDA was by consensus and more important nowadays). Disappointing outlook for the fourth quarter but 5% rate brought down. A little further ahead, however, steel prices appear early next year to restore shine as the developments in China indicate. Arcelor Mittal sees however, a weakening in demand from China, the reason for the unpleasant guidance. You need to do what you later found to be easy.
o Growth in the UK was in the third quarter, twice as high as thought (0.8% or 3.2% annualized). The azijnpissers were like the chickens on to say that in the fourth quarter growth significantly lower, as in the growth rates a quarter ago (once they get the same). Coincidentally at the same time: UK - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that its prospects for the UK upgraded to stabile by negative.
o In America, new five-year inflation-linked bonds (TIPS) are issued against a negative (real) interest rate of -0.55%. Helicopter Ben is believed that he can create inflation and low short dated rates. Low real interest rates are good for attracting business investment too.
o Ford Sales were good(40% higher than last year). Ford is therefore supported by subsidies in the mood to create 1200 jobs in Michigan through an investment of $ 850 million (not really cheap new jobs ).
o Earnings season remains very good.
o Japan approved additional stimulation of Y 5.1 trillion .
o Japan is still in the mood to intervene in yens despite the G20 if the yen gets too high they said today.
o "this market is cheap, cheap, cheap" - Cramer - * blog * & par = RSS

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