Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Investment Chart Kondratiev Wave

Saturday, 13 September 2025

four year cycle warning but this time is different

 Jurrien Timber


The median bull market lasts about 30 months and produces a gain of 90%. The current one is up 88% in 35 months

That is what normally happens in a four year cycle of equities. The new cycle started at the end of 2022 and after about 30 months you get the down part of the cycle. In the first part you have only minor corrections and buy the dip because of FOMO, is the best thing to do. Normally the FED causes corrections and the bear markets. Corrections beacause the FED is not as nice as thought or is causing a recession. 
This time the FED doesn't want to cause a recession and will start easing again. Several rate cuts are now likely (independent of Trump). Inflation is going up because of Trump, but not much because rents are slowing and the oil price declining. The money growth is normal and not causing extra inflation. It is only those beautiful tariffs of Trump that are causing goods inflation. service inflation ex housing is pretty stable, a bit rising but when the economy further slows down the sevrice inflation probably will also slow down a bit despite  goods inflation. 
The profit taxations are going up for the third quarter and that is unusual. Nominal GDP growth seems to be reasonable, so not many revenue warnings (yet). And OBBA will arrive. If OBBA is arriving in time and helping consumption enough a recession probably will be avoided. This normally means a further rising market on FED cuts and fiscal stimulation.
So maybe this time is different and no bear market will arrive soon.

Blankfein also warns for a bear market based on credit risk, leverage and too low credit spreads. But he still is 100% in equities.. 

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