Saturday, 13 September 2025

four year cycle warning but this time is different

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 Jurrien Timber The median bull market lasts about 30 months and produces a gain of 90%. The current one is up 88% in 35 months That is what...
Sunday, 7 September 2025

the systems do'nt work anymore in the US, China, Germany

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 Voters are angry in many countries and that is because the system is no longer working well for them, at least in their eyes. So populism h...
Monday, 25 August 2025

back in 2025

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 I'm too lazy for updating this blog. Now I want to give it a new try. The forecast of the real S&P500 in 2009 was better than  ever...
Thursday, 5 December 2013

Woody Brock: why economic growth will be lower, unintended consequenses of QE and 30 year decline of labour income quote

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Why growth in the world will not be as high as in the past It is not necessary for economic growth to be so low in the coming years, ...
Saturday, 15 June 2013

four year cycle: have we seen the top?

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Ter Veer and I always judged in which phase we were in the cycle. The current cycle is lasting too long as happens often when you have had...
Thursday, 3 January 2013

S&P to go to 1620-1650 in 2013

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Business Insider had some nice slides where several gurus showed their chart of the year. The above of Matt King shows how the S&P500 ...
6 comments:

10 forecasts for 2013

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The intention is to give forecasts for possible trends that are underestimated by the market according to us. 1. After a weak H1 US eco...
Wednesday, 8 August 2012

Update Kondratieff Wave

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Optimistic chart of the S&P500 corrected for inflation on a logarithmic scale (as above in the blog). Since December 2009 (publicatio...
4 comments:
Monday, 6 August 2012

Good news of the last week

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1. The hope rally of surplus liquidity The most important last week was the analysis that with some patience one should have to get more...
Wednesday, 1 August 2012

Pessimism about growth extrapolated: age of diminished expectations (Minack, Strategas, Pimco)

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George Minack of Morgan Stanley as usual had nice charts with the accompanying gloomy and dreary analysis. How things are going in the US...

Is it like 1937 or like 1949? The time of diminished expectations

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Many people fear that after the fiscal cliff of 2013 the US is in the same situation as in 1937. After the tremendous Roosevelt government s...
3 comments:
Monday, 30 July 2012

Some charts for optimists

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1. Economic Surprise Induces are troughing Source: Credit Suisse 2. Earnings pessimism is extreme (Socgen chart) (Credit Sui...
Thursday, 26 July 2012

Slowing of growth in UK, Germany and US

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A very bad number for UK growth in Q2, -0.8% because of the diamond jubilee of Elizabeth and the lower amount of days worked. The consens...
Wednesday, 25 July 2012

High taxes like new Dutch Disease bad for equities (JP Morgan)

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JP Morgan had a report ( Impact of Tax Rates on Stock Market Returns ) how bad it is when you raise taxes. So Obama remaining in power shoul...