Thursday 5 December 2013

Woody Brock: why economic growth will be lower, unintended consequenses of QE and 30 year decline of labour income quote

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Why growth in the world will not be as high as in the past It is not necessary for economic growth to be so low in the coming years, ...
Saturday 15 June 2013

four year cycle: have we seen the top?

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Ter Veer and I always judged in which phase we were in the cycle. The current cycle is lasting too long as happens often when you have had...
Thursday 3 January 2013

S&P to go to 1620-1650 in 2013

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Business Insider had some nice slides where several gurus showed their chart of the year. The above of Matt King shows how the S&P500 ...
6 comments:

10 forecasts for 2013

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The intention is to give forecasts for possible trends that are underestimated by the market according to us. 1. After a weak H1 US eco...
Wednesday 8 August 2012

Update Kondratieff Wave

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Optimistic chart of the S&P500 corrected for inflation on a logarithmic scale (as above in the blog). Since December 2009 (publicatio...
4 comments:
Monday 6 August 2012

Good news of the last week

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1. The hope rally of surplus liquidity The most important last week was the analysis that with some patience one should have to get more...
Wednesday 1 August 2012

Pessimism about growth extrapolated: age of diminished expectations (Minack, Strategas, Pimco)

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George Minack of Morgan Stanley as usual had nice charts with the accompanying gloomy and dreary analysis. How things are going in the US...

Is it like 1937 or like 1949? The time of diminished expectations

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Many people fear that after the fiscal cliff of 2013 the US is in the same situation as in 1937. After the tremendous Roosevelt government s...
3 comments:
Monday 30 July 2012

Some charts for optimists

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1. Economic Surprise Induces are troughing Source: Credit Suisse 2. Earnings pessimism is extreme (Socgen chart) (Credit Sui...
Thursday 26 July 2012

Slowing of growth in UK, Germany and US

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A very bad number for UK growth in Q2, -0.8% because of the diamond jubilee of Elizabeth and the lower amount of days worked. The consens...
Wednesday 25 July 2012

High taxes like new Dutch Disease bad for equities (JP Morgan)

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JP Morgan had a report ( Impact of Tax Rates on Stock Market Returns ) how bad it is when you raise taxes. So Obama remaining in power shoul...
Monday 23 July 2012

some good news of the last days

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After all these disaster stories about Spain it is good to see that not everything is going in the wrong direction for   Spain : the big p...
Friday 20 July 2012

Seasonals and calendar effects: Swinkels and van Vliet

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A nice, thorough study by Laurens Swinkels and Pim van Vliet (July 2011): An anatomy of calendar effects (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/pape...
Thursday 19 July 2012

American dream (2): belief in free markets succumbs to bad times

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The American Dream is the belief you can become rich when you work hard enough and that is mainly because the free market economy enables ...